Could it be any worse for the USMNT?
December 6, 2013 Leave a comment
I am still jittery after the 2014 World Cup draw. After a brilliant 2013 year that wholly exceeded my expectations for the USMNT, the only thing standing between us and our best World Cup ever was the ridiculously convoluted draw.
I fought the draw and the draw won.
After each group got their top seeded team in the tournament, I immediately Tweeted something about hoping to land in Group E as Switzerland was there. Even Group H with Belgium would have been fine by me. I will not bore you with the blow-by-blow details, but we were the third team drawn into Group G, with Germany (the place from which our head coach hails) and Ghana (our eliminators during the past two World Cups). The only draw remaining was our European team.
There is a lot of tension and mental gymnastics when you sit in the next to last group. You have to watch six preceding draws from European teams. Those preceding draws can give you hope or a stomach ache. As the European teams were drawn, Portugal seemed stuck in Pot 4. When it was USMNT’s turn, we had a coin-flip chance of drawing the highest ranked team in all of Pot 4, making our group hellacious at best.
Of course we drew Portugal.
It could have been worse with our Pot 2 draw, but it could equally have been better, too. There were three teams ahead of Ghana in the world rankings (Italy, Chile, and Ivory Coast), three teams behind (Algeria, Nigeria, and Cameroon) and one virtually equal to Ghana (Ecuador). Instead of a Pot 2 laggard, we got a middle of the pot team.
Taking a closer look at our draw from my eternally-half-empty perspective and current world rankings, there was only one worse team to have drawn against from Pot 1: Spain. That group would have consisted of Chile and the Netherlands. I admit that would have, to use a technical term, sucked equally or worse. But, that group has #1 and # 9 in the world currently, whereas our group has #2 and #4 in the world. Our chances are better for upsetting the Netherlands than Portugal, mathematically speaking.
At this point, I am sure you are choking on numerical analysis and be wondering if there is any hope. There is not much, but I will leave you with these thoughts:
- We open against a team with which we have a lot of bad World Cup history. Ghana is the last team we faced in the previous two World Cups. Both matches resulted in our World Cup elimination. The USMNT can use this to their advantage and open the tournament with three points.
- We beat Germany in 2013. I understand the obvious fact that we did not defeat a World Cup roster of Germans, but we still took the fight to them, so there is something in which the USMNT can believe. This belief is complicated by our weak showing in Europe during the 2013 close. The USMNT will have to put those two matches well behind them.
- We are fit and strong, and a team that historically thrives on adversity. Our travel schedule for 2014 World Cup is disproportionally difficult compared to other schedules. USMNT will travel an estimate 8,866 miles for our matches. The USMNT can turn that disadvantage into advantage if the remain mentally strong.
- Grant Wahl on Twitter astutely pointed out that we will face Germany after they have (hopefully) already qualified for the World Cup. That could be in our favor as we might stand a chance of getting points from a resting Germany, likely when we really need them.
As for me, very soon I will request vacation for the three Group matches in June. I am not bothering to arrange beyond that, yet. We need three points against Ghana and at least one from Portugal before I request that time off from work.